TISR poll puts Tsai-Chen ticket ahead

Only DPP, KMT and PFP win at-large seats: poll

by Matthew Strong

 

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – On the day Democratic Progressive Party Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen registered for the presidential election, a new opinion poll put her more than 20 percent ahead of her Kuomintang rival.

Tsai and her running mate, former health minister Chen Chien-jen, were the last team of candidates to register for the January 16 election. Earlier in the week, KMT Chairman Eric Liluan Chu and former labor minister Jennifer Wang registered, as well as People First Party Chairman James Soong with Minkuotang Chairwoman Hsu Hsin-ying as his running mate.

As to the Legislative Yuan elections to be held the same day, only three parties, the KMT, the DPP and the PFP, would win enough party votes to be represented in the 113-seat assembly, according to the Taiwan Indicators Survey Research poll.

Tsai received 44.8 percent in the survey, Chu 19.1 percent, and Soong 11.8 percent. TISR found no significant changes compared to its previous poll, which was conducted after the November 7 summit between President Ma Ying-jeou and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. At the time, Tsai and Chu had slightly more, 46.2 percent and 20.4 percent respectively, while Soong scored less, 10.4 percent.

TISR noted that the changes all fell within the margin of error, and that the choices of vice-presidential candidates did not appear to have altered voters’ preferences.

In the legislative elections, voters will have two votes to cast, one for an individual candidate and one for a party list. The latter will occupy 34 seats out of a total of 113.

According to TISR, only the three presidential candidates’ parties would clear the 5-percent threshold to win any of those 34 seats. The DPP would finish first with 35.5 percent, the KMT would follow with 24.9 percent and the PFP would receive 6.5 percent.

The New Power Party, which emerged from last year’s Sunflower Movement, would only win 3.3 percent of party votes, according to TISR. The Taiwan Solidarity Union, which won three at-large seats in the 2012 election, would drop out with only 2.5 percent of at-large votes. The alliance between the Green Party Taiwan and the Social Democratic Party would receive 1.4 percent, while Hsu’s MKT would end up with 1.1 percent, the poll indicated.

Individual candidates from those parties might however still win in district races for the remaining legislative seats.

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